Amplifying Southern Annular Mode Variability in the Past and Future
编号:289 稿件编号:47 访问权限:仅限参会人 更新:2025-03-27 14:30:08 浏览:106次 口头报告

报告开始:2025年04月18日 14:50 (Asia/Shanghai)

报告时间:10min

所在会议:[S1-6] 专题1.6 气候变化驱动的大尺度环流变异与极端天气 » [S1-6] 专题1.6 气候变化驱动的大尺度环流变异与极端天气

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摘要

This study investigates the increasing variance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) from 1940 to 2020 using state-of-the-art reanalysis products, observational data, climate projections. We first document a substantial increase in the standard deviation of the SAM index around 1980, concurrent with shifts in midlatitude eddy forcing. Composites of precipitation anomalies reveal that positive and negative SAM phases have intensified post-1980, producing more pronounced extreme weather events. Through a simple eddy-jet interaction model, we demonstrate that an increase in eddy forcing is the primary driver of the heightened SAM amplitude. Furthermore, climate model simulations indicate robust future changes in both the mean state and variability of the SAM, suggesting more frequent extremes in Southern Hemisphere weather patterns. This integrated approach, combining reanalysis, observations, simple modeling, and climate projections, clarifies the mechanisms underlying observed and anticipated trends in SAM variability. Our findings highlight the broader implications of intensified jet variability for regional climate and extreme weather.

关键字
Southern Annular Mode,jet variabililty,climate change
报告人
马丁
副研究员 昆山杜克大学

稿件作者
马丁 昆山杜克大学
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